Barack Obama, Business, Culture of Corruption, Deception and Lies, Democrats, economy, government, media, MSM Bias, obama economy tanking, obama failure, Obamanomics, politics, Politics and tagged barack obama, weekly jobless claims
Monday, July 30th, 2012 at 6:00 am
“We tried our plan and it worked” Yikes!
This is what Obama’s success looks like:
On Monday, the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global growth. This could particularly hurt exports and manufacturing in the United States.
All this is happening while the American president declares his contempt for private business, attacks success and renews his call for punitive tax increases, and his Democratic allies in Congress celebrate the idea of pushing America off the “fiscal cliff” — not in pursuit of economic recovery, but to satisfy their death wish for the most productive Americans. Let’s face it, Obama and the Democrats resent private accomplishment and want independent Americans to be cut down to size while the government is made a little bigger.
And this explains why the corrupt media is making all of our eyes glaze over as they enter day 11,485 of demanding Romney release his tax returns and Bain-Bain-Bain.
By focusing on nonsense and on Romney, the media can protect Obama from what you see below –which is an economy and Americans in very real trouble.
1. Weekly jobless claims shot up to 386,000.
2. Foreclosures are hitting our most vulnerable citizens.
3. Factory activity contracted for a second month in a row.
4. Home sales dropped a whopping 5.4% — the biggest drop in nine months.
5. Retail sales dropped for the third straight month.
6. Consumer confidence dipped to 84.7.
7. U.S. business inventories increased by .3%…
8. …sales dropped .1%.
9. Food prices are skyrocketing.
10. More Americans are getting federal disability than jobs.
The Commerce Department on Friday delivered very bad news to President Obama. Economic growth in the second quarter of 2012 plummeted to 1.5 percent — a critically poor showing going into an election. Twenty years ago, then-candidate Bill Clinton sounded the alarm after receiving similar information. His words then are prophetic today.
In 1992, the second-quarter growth came in at 1.4 percent, though the economy enjoyed a lower unemployment rate and drastically smaller federal budget deficits. “Today’s economic statistics confirm what the American people have been trying to tell the president for some time now,” Mr. Clinton said at the time. “We are in a crisis, an economic crisis.”
That message helped propel the former Arkansas governor into the Oval Office. “Maybe today’s statistics will be a wake-up call to an administration that is still offering alibis, not action, while people are hurting,” he said then. Mitt Romney could credibly say the same thing about Mr. Obama, considering the president’s assertion at a fundraiser in California on July 23, “We tried our [economic] plan — and it worked.”
Given the rapid decline in growth rates, it’s legitimate to ask how Mr. Obama measures success. Fourth-quarter 2011 growth for some reason was revised upward by more than a full point, from 3 percent to 4.1 percent, which may have been touted as evidence of Mr. Obama’s effective leadership. Now it means that the current contraction is far worse than economists expected. Instead of growth being cut in half since last year, it has plunged by almost two-thirds.
Anyway, here’s what we’ve learned about our faltering today and over the weekend:
Unemployment rose in 27 states.
Earnings Show Recession May Be “Fast Approaching”
After spending 50 years and trillions of dollars on the War On Poverty, thanks to Barack Obama’s failed policies, Poverty has won.
Economic growth forecasts darkening.
The headline real GDP data were “OK,” showing a 1.5% q/q annual rate for the second quarter … The key question is what “muddle through” growth means for profits, since profits are a leading indicator. These GDP numbers are consistent with a small increase in profits in 2Q (since compensation was restrained), but that follows a contraction in 1Q. So, profits now look to have been roughly flat for 3 quarters. Another way to put this is that we still are in a very sluggish nominal GDP environment, with nominal GDP up at just a 3.1% q/q pace and 4% y/y. All companies report their results and pay their workers in nominal dollars.
The new data also show just how weak the Obama recovery has been, expanding at an annual average pace of just 2.2% vs. 5.7% for the Reagan recovery.
In addition, the GDP report shows the Obama administration has continually and wildly overestimated the positive impact of its economic policies, including the $800 billion stimulus plan:
– In August of 2009, the White House—after having a half year to view the economy and its $800 billion stimulus response—predicted that GDP would rise 4.3% in 2011, followed by 4.3% growth in 2012 and 2013, too. And 2014? Another year of 4.0% growth.
– In its 2010 forecast, the White House said it was looking for 3.5% GDP growth in 2012, followed by 4.4% in 2013, 4.3% in 2014.
– In its 2011 forecast, the White House predicted 3.1% growth in 2011, 4.0% in 2012 and 4.5% in 2013, 4.2% in 2014.
– In its most recent forecast, the White House predicted 3.0% growth this year and next, and then back to 4.0% after that. The current consensus is for 2013 growth to be a lot like 2012 growth.
Carter has borne the shame of having the highest Misery Index in history, but you have to realize that the government since the 1980s has massaged unemployment and inflation numbers to make them look good to the public. If you use “alternative” measures that are closer to those used in Carter’s day, a different picture emerges.
Utilizing what are today called “U-6″ numbers for unemployment, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the jobless rate is 14.9 for June 2012, not the 8.2 published in the newspapers.
Right there, you’ve got a real current Misery Index of 16.6.
The issue of inflation is a sticky one, as well. The government likes to leave out and “adjust” its numbers. Unlike with unemployment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics doesn’t advertise “alternative” measures of its Consumer Price Index, and while items like food have soared recently, the CPI has been held down by a sudden drop in gas prices, just in time for the election.
While there are different takes on inflation, estimates of the “real” current rate using Carter-era standards range as high as above 10 percent. If that’s the case, that would put Obama’s Misery Index around 26 percent, well above anything Carter achieved.
That would also help explain why the media aren’t into touting the Misery Index these days.
The bottom line seems to be that you can’t trust the government to tell you what’s really going on, and you sure can’t trust the media. So you may have to go with your gut.
And the obvious exit question
Do you feel less miserable today than you did four years ago?
This is not what success looks like.