by John Nolte
October 16, 2012, 6:47 AM PDT
In this particular poll, the movement towards Romney nationally is a net gain of two points. In the swing states, Romney overcame a four-point deficit. Two weeks ago he was losing to Obama, 50-46%. That’s a seven-point shift.
Daily Kos released the daily numbers in this three-day rolling poll. Friday and Saturday averaged out to a tie, but on Sunday, Romney walloped Obama by twelve points — 55-43%. Obviously, that’s a fluke, but the question is, how much of one? Was there a real momentum shift of some kind? Daily Kos claims that nothing in the news can account for this, but that’s debatable.
What we might have seen on Sunday was Biden’s ugly debate performance and the Libya uproar that came as a result finally coming home to roost. Again, I don’t think Romney’s up 55-43%, but you can make a case that a Sunday shift in momentum towards Romney does make sense.
The main takeaway in this poll is that in the swing states and nationally, Romney is now proving he has the ability to poll at or above 50%. This is a new phenomenon and one we’re seeing in other polls, as well.
On the flip-side, Obama is starting to lose his ability to hit 50, even in swing states where he currently holds a slight edge over Romney. This is terrible news for any incumbent three weeks out.
The bottom line is that this poll confirms what we’re seeing everywhere else: slow but certain movement towards Mitt Romney at every level.
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