Earlier this month, Rasmussen had former two-term Governor Jerry Brown edging Republican Meg Whitman, 43/41, with neither candidate showing much momentum. In less than a month, Rasmussen shows a ten-point move by Whitman and a potentially commanding lead, while Brown appears to be fading. With leaners, the news gets even worse for Brown:
The tie is broken for now, with Republican Meg Whitman, coming off last weekend’s state GOP Convention, moving out to her best showing yet in the race to be the next governor of California.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in California finds Whitman earning 48% support, while Democrat Jerry Brown picks up 40% of the vote. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided. …
Early this month, Brown was slightly ahead 43% to 41% in a contest that has been neck and neck since last September. Brown, currently the state’s attorney general, bounced briefly ahead immediately following the state Democratic Convention in April, but the race tightened again in June after Whitman’s Republican primary win.
Being from California, I can attest to the fact that a state convention isn’t going to give a candidate a ten-point bounce. It’s good mainly for some earned media, but the candidates get chosen in primary contests in the Golden State, not conventions. Since the primary took place in June, the Republican convention last weekend was mainly aimed at organizing, and not the kind of candidate boosting that grabs headlines and moves polls.